Showing posts with label recession. Show all posts
Showing posts with label recession. Show all posts

Monday, January 05, 2009

Zooming out of Gloom... hopefully

When 2008 was about to roll in, the numerology department was working overtime... the significance of the total 2+0+0+8 had them in a dizzy... its a great year or so they said... 12 months later... don't we all think 2008 as one of the most dramatic, impact-ful, draining, eye-opening, gut-wrenching times of most living beings' lifetime.. from the economy that was in a tailspin and the violence that wouldn't stop around the world and the melting glaciers and the deficit in most countries' budget and the increase in hunger deaths and the loss of jobs and the rise in crimes and the .... too many bad headlines...

10 years from now - when, hopefully we are out of this crisis - we will recall 2008 as the year that had too many bad headlines, the year that doomed many a savings account, the year where we started saving on fast food, electricity, gas and anything that can be saved... History will equate 2008 with 1931 the most comparable and deadly ogre of a cousin.... the great depression... History will by then have all things we did wrong in 19 titles on newsstands, of what we should learn, what we missed and how to avoid... and someone will make money on it too...

Human race... we are funny... we commit the mistake , we avoid the reactions, we sidestep the repercussions until it hits us in the face, we smart from it because we have no other choice, some try and stand up, like water off a duck's back we march on and commit the next series of blunders...

2008 was not all that bad... in fact 2008 was the ugly bill for all the sins of 2001 to 2007, the sins also called as failed policies, missed warning signs and general lack of concern for the future... 2008 was the ugly product of all that was wrong in the previous years... 2008 was needed, it was important the human race gets hit on the face with reality.... its a splash of cold water...

No one needs a million dollar home, no one needs a 4 bedroom home, no one needs 3 cars, no one needs 2 cellphones... but almost everyone wants them all and thats how we ended up with 2008... if we only keep paying the interest on a loan the primary never disappears, if we only look 2 days ahead in our life, the deadlines in the next week never shows up early, if we remain short sighted with a head bigger than the stomach we all only deserve 2008...

No one knows which one policy will take us out of this rut and deliver us to the next one... we are all as excited as can be... for what did we get from 2008 that we cant let go off ... other than a pile of bills, a rack of empty headache bottles, a few broken glasses that bore the brunt of our anger as the stock indexes went for a swim-dive.... its a fallacy to expect one policy to be the silver bullet a series of policies are necessary ..

As individuals we need to step up and distinguish our needs from our wants... in times like these we don't need what we want... we should want what we need... the more we realize the difference and cater to our needs... the better we are all off...

Can 2009 be as bad as 2008, well who knows... but every individual can command what happens with them, as more individuals get smart... with a concerted effort to keep ourselves better prepared we will sail through it... and we can even live to describe it to the next generation... of how we learnt WANT, NEED, GREED, PURPOSE and PERSPECTIVE from the year 2008.... Happy New Year

Friday, November 14, 2008

Recession Fears: Is an information overflow feeding panic

Each day... each hour... each minute... we are updated with information... Information that fritters through various sources... next door neighbour, your milkman, the TV man and ofcourse the internet..

We seem to learn about a spoilt milk packet in China before we seem to know what ails our restroom shower. We seem to know that Zimbabwe has a million percentage inflation before we even can recollect the number of distant cousins in our spouse's family...

Point is we are being fed with millions of pixels, every minute... we have become obese with information.... some of us see 'breaking news' in flashing red in our sleep... we seemed to be informed tha Obama is still searching for a dog, we seem to be informed that Sarah Palin bought 150k worth of clothes when we cant recollect the last time we bought a pair of trousers for our parents....

This plethora of useless information is an admissable snack if we are receiving positive news.. but whats the effect of this information orgy when it brings negative news. I mean, we seem to learn about another bank collapse every hour.

I wonder how was the great depression of the 1930s era... what kind of information was available, how frequently did they get them... what exactly did the then President convey to the denizens... were they better off.. when they didnt know it... for instance do the company's workers concentrate better if they arent declared as dead men walking... was it better for the psyche when u werent deluged with job loss information...

take for instance the Lehman brothers.. they were in "talks to sell to a Korean Company" on day 1... by day 3-4 the talks went cold... day 4.0000001 it was on the internet.... day 4.0000002 there were 18 internet experts downgrading the stock to junk status... day 4.5 customers start withdrawing money... day 5 bank files for bankruptcy.... i have never seen or even remotely heard prior to that an instance of an 100 plus year old institution crumbling hopelessly and basically vanishing from the scene...

i, for one, felt.. the speed of the information... the sources.. many of them off the record and illegal leaks.. were too many and it ultimately lead a mad spree to withdraw their money from the bank and it just crumbled... a similar thing happened in Washington Mutual bank... a similar thing happened in Germany... in UK... the point is.. maybe these companies had a chance if they just had a little more breathing room.. maybe if the information had been cold for 1 more day.. some other financier pours money into Lehman... maybe? we will never know.. because there is no stopping.. there is no pausing... there is one constant... the refresh button.. millions of articles each minute... about why we should buy this.. why we should sell that.. why we should stand pat...

I am not for a minute suggesting that customers or onlookers should not "know" stuff... but maybe they should not be "fed" to death with information... i just get the feeling we are at a point were things are happening at a such a fast pace we can neither pause nor take a deep breath.... its driven us to the point were we have become addicted to our "refresh" button on the browser... its feeding panic.. i just wish we had a little bit of scaled back information... maybe we will even relax a little bit.... maybe thats a good thing...

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Obama Nation

Nov 4 was a red letter day. Simple. Sweet. Refreshing. I think for the first time in a million years the voting denizens and the onlooking political voyeurs look forward with hope and trepedity the oncoming change. Never before has the world stopped in awe and wondered aloud what one nation is teaching the others... change the eventual constant can happen anywhere. Can change be instant, is change the begining or the end. Is Change a destination or a pitstop.. is change a game-changer or is it a curveball/googly.

Change is what we want it to be. In an economy that seems to crack a little bit more each day, that seems to enjoy its own masochist orgy.. change is welcome. The only caveat is that we hope this change is for the better.

Minorities everywhere believe one thing, they are disadvantaged and cant win. Well a minority candidate won. The one shocking thing this is that it took so long even in the US of A. Is the American vote a reflection of the desire for unity or a vote for policy. I would love to believe that the vote for President-elect Barack Obama is a vote for mere unity. I would really love to. But, I believe its a convenient by-product. It's his policy that garnered the votes and thats the best part. We dont want a winner because we have sympathy for his melanin content, that would be cruel. I bet none of us want to win a victory thats conceded to us due to lack of competition or sympathy. Thankfully Obama won it, he wasnt given the presidency, McCain didnt concede it or lose it, Obama won it .

Obama won because he appeared articulate, knowledgable, coached, simple and mostly because he came across as someone who gets it. Oh the constant blaming of the Oil companies and the multi-millionaires didnt hurt.

Lets get one thing straight, he is not one of us. He was one among us who didnt deserve to be just another number in the population. He claims to be one among us, he just happens to be from among us.. now he is really in his league. Democracy or not.. Joe the plumber or Pat the soccer-mom cant get more than 15 minutes of fame.

It shows the guts of the American denizens to vote for a man who was recluse until one fine spring day a couple of years back when he provided the response to President Bush's budget. Obama represents a chance not a change. It will become a change if something really does change. Until then he is an opportunity, he is the dawn, let dusk come before we declare something changed during daylight.

Obama couldnt walk into a more complex chaos, its more pungent than a Pei-Wei exhaust, its as numbing as losing large toe. This economic climate is complex. We got out of one rut with some bandaid in the name of homeloans to an even more complex canyon. The thing that we cant afford to do is espouse another old wine of a policy, more often than not these policies of the past are sour milk.

I couldnt tell you how this is going to end up, i cannot fathom a chance that this will resolve in months. It doesnt matter who supported Obama or not, it doesnt matter who voted for him or not, it doesnt matter whether you like him or not, it doesnt matter if you think he can or not, it matters you provide him the chance. It matters you remain confidant in the choice of the majority, it matters you trust democracy and its fruits, it matters you contribute from the benches, it matters you provide him your voice of support, it matters you trust we stand to gain from this. Some people may not like him because of his skin, but lets find out whether we should rather shun him based on his results.

I am ready to follow the steps of the President-elect in the hope that he uses this chance to bring in change. Change didnt stop on the day he got elected, change just got born the day he got elected, change can die a quick death if he is not ready or is incompeteant... but lets wait, lets wait to see what he does with the chance. In the meantime make solid decisions for your life, your bank accounts and community. Think, Act, Work Hard and we will all thrive.

Lets hope Obama does that too, for we all need that change from up-top.